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Recently there are a lot of speculations that the Prime Minister will be calling for election soon. If that indeed happens, is there anything we can do to position ourselves in the stock market ?
To answer the above question, I did a quick study on certain Blue Chips to find out whether past election (5 May 2013) had any impact on their share price.
Affin
Affin started going up on 4 March 2013 (RM3.32). One day before election, it closed at RM3.46, up 4.2%.
AmBank
AmBank started going up on 25 February 2013 (RM6.32). One day before election, it closed at RM6.63, up 4.9%.
Axiata
Axiata started going up on 18 February 2013 (RM6.37). One day before election, it closed at RM6.60, up 3.6%.
CIMB
CIMB started going up on 25 February 2013 (RM7.24). One day before election, it closed at RM7.61, up 5.1%.
Maybank
Maybank started going up on 18 February 2013 (RM9.07). One day before election, it closed at RM9.59, up 5.7%.
RHB Capital
RHB Bank started going up on 25 February 2013 (RM7.86). One day before election, it closed at RM8.41, up 7%.
Telekom
Telekom started going up on 18 March 2013 (RM5.25). One day before election, it closed at RM5.51, up 5%.
Tenaga
Tenaga started going up on 18 February 2013 (RM6.91). One day before election, it closed at RM7.78, up 12.6%.
Concluding Remarks
(a) My study shows that all of the relevant Blue Chips (in the stock universe) went up by approxmaitely 5% during a period of approximately 8 to 12 weeks before Election.
(b) Tenaga was the Star Performer, up by 12.6%.
(c) A return of 5% is not exactly very exciting, unless you play Call Warrants, which amplify the gain and loss by multiple folds through their leveraging effect. Of course, High Reward comes with High Risk. I don't advocate taking big position to get rich quick. It is ok to just play a little bit for the excitement.
To answer the above question, I did a quick study on certain Blue Chips to find out whether past election (5 May 2013) had any impact on their share price.
Affin
Affin started going up on 4 March 2013 (RM3.32). One day before election, it closed at RM3.46, up 4.2%.
AmBank
AmBank started going up on 25 February 2013 (RM6.32). One day before election, it closed at RM6.63, up 4.9%.
Axiata
CIMB
CIMB started going up on 25 February 2013 (RM7.24). One day before election, it closed at RM7.61, up 5.1%.
Maybank
Maybank started going up on 18 February 2013 (RM9.07). One day before election, it closed at RM9.59, up 5.7%.
RHB Capital
RHB Bank started going up on 25 February 2013 (RM7.86). One day before election, it closed at RM8.41, up 7%.
Telekom
Telekom started going up on 18 March 2013 (RM5.25). One day before election, it closed at RM5.51, up 5%.
Tenaga
Tenaga started going up on 18 February 2013 (RM6.91). One day before election, it closed at RM7.78, up 12.6%.
Concluding Remarks
(a) My study shows that all of the relevant Blue Chips (in the stock universe) went up by approxmaitely 5% during a period of approximately 8 to 12 weeks before Election.
(b) Tenaga was the Star Performer, up by 12.6%.
(c) A return of 5% is not exactly very exciting, unless you play Call Warrants, which amplify the gain and loss by multiple folds through their leveraging effect. Of course, High Reward comes with High Risk. I don't advocate taking big position to get rich quick. It is ok to just play a little bit for the excitement.
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